America has a long history of nonintervention in Eurocentric wars. We are fortunate that bilateral oceans buffer us from immediate threats of conventional warfare. That oceanic moat is less protective in a 21st century airborne or missile attack, but may offer some early warning and comfort.
In the early 20th century, isolationist America watched the cascade of treaty-bound war declarations between European countries in 1914 after the assassination of Austrian Archduke Ferdinand. After almost three years, the US entered the Great War prompted by the sinking of the British RMS Lusitania with many American passengers and later several US merchant ships.
Two decades later, European conflict was brewing in 1936 as Hitler moved troops into German-speaking areas of France, Austria, and Czechoslovakia without significant resistance, sparking the infamous Policy of Appeasement. Subsequently, Germany broke its solemn promise not to further invade Czechoslovakia, and then Poland. Sound familiar?
World War Two began in Europe while America watched for another two years until attacked by Japan in 1941. History may never be predictive, and the current situation includes a possible nuclear precipice to further complicate comparisons. But it is fair to ask if we are watching a slow-moving train wreck in Ukraine we’ve watched – from afar – before.
There is no question that Russia feels stressed by creeping social and cultural encroachment from the West, including clothing fashions, entertainment, creature comforts, technology products, and living standards. These are powerful attractions to worldwide citizens and may be inevitable, even without a direct or coordinated social “invasion.” As I wrote last month, Russia is a large landmass with a smallish economy not able to withstand much outside pressure.
This may be an organic cultural hegemony, but is it also the look of 21st century conflict? Will future struggles focus not on lethality but on softer, lifestyle issues, “community” issues in the larger sense of the community of man?
Focusing on the Ukraine war (it is no longer a “conflict” or “struggle” or, as Putin framed it, “special operations”), it is clear that Russian resistance is so 20th century. Granted, Vladimir Putin is an Old School guy, but he’s also a student of history, and maybe of war. The Russian military experience in Syria is often compared to this Ukrainian war for its tactics of wanton destruction. In Syria, however, Putin had the Bashar al-Assad government to pick up the postwar pieces.
A decimated postwar Ukraine might become wholly a vassal state of Russia, with reliance on Russia for reconstruction of its built environment and infrastructure while dealing with continued animosity among remaining Ukrainians. It is difficult to see how this was part of the Russian calculus before the invasion.
Currently strained and anticipated to be financially crippled at the end of this war, Russia will have domestic economic difficulties on top of the reconstruction costs of its newly conquered territory. This is just another scenario that might explain a strategic shift to retrench in the Donbas region, which has – of this writing – not been as thoroughly destroyed as elsewhere. Putin might halt after the retrenchment and pacification of the Donbas population, claim victory (or at least attainment of stated original goals) and leave rebuilding of the rest of Ukraine to vanquished Ukrainians.
Keep your eyes on early May. May 1 was the traditional May Day holiday in Soviet Russia with nationalistic parades and marches. In post-Soviet Russia, it’s now called Spring and Labor Day, a national holiday, celebrated this year on May 2. It marked the 67th day since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the 63rd day since the stepped-up financial sanctions that have crippled the Russian economy. Celebrations in Russia may be hampered by scarce goods.
May 9 is Victory Day in Russia, marking the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945. It is tremendously important psychologically for Putin and the Russian people. A prominent Putin talking point and rationalization for his invasion was to “demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.” Defeating Nazis in 1945 Germany and defeating them in 2022 Ukraine would be a potent propaganda message and a psychological lift for the Russian people. Politician Putin usually speaks at the Victory Day celebration in Moscow’s Red Square. This year the city is preparing for 12,500 people, 190 vehicles, and 76 aircraft.
Expect dictator Putin to press his armies to set the stage for a victory speech, with or without complete victory on the battlefield.