by JS, ISB Staff Writer
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and other expert reviewers have warned of the drastic impact of ACA repeal on patient coverage and care, the most important being the loss of health insurance coverage by 22 million people. But how would the repeal affect the general economy including jobs and incomes like mine?
- The biggest portion of healthcare costs goes to compensation for the many people who take care of us, from physicians to technologists. Repeal of the ACA will have a devastating impact on the healthcare labor force, comprised largely of professionals with middle class jobs.
- In addition to the direct labor impact, there are ripple effects to many other sectors of the economy: for example, industries that support healthcare (manufacture and sales of medical supplies and equipment) would see sales decrease and their own employee numbers reduced.
Did the formation of the ACA create jobs?
- The ACA did a lot more than provide health insurance. The expansion of the healthcare sector also resulted in very healthy job growth, which in turn strengthened national and local economies.
- Between 2014 and 2017, nearly 39,000 healthcare sector jobs were added each month. Many of those jobs, including some held by people you know, are in jeopardy if the ACA is repealed or even reduced.
What kind of job loss would result from repeal?
- A study by the Commonwealth Fund of the American Health Care Act (the House repeal bill) predicts that the
AHCA will eliminate 924,000 jobs nationwide by 2026 (725,000 specifically in the health sector and the rest in related dependent industries). It is highly unlikely that other sectors could make up this job loss.
- It is ironic to note that most – if not all – of these employees will also lose their own health coverage, creating an even greater need for healthcare insurance than now.
- Full repeal of the ACA’s subsidies and Medicaid expansion will result in national job loss as high as 2.6 million.
How will the repeal affect jobs in California?
- States that expanded Medicaid (such as California) will experience a more drastic economic impact.
- The non-partisan Commonwealth Fund estimates total job losses in California, with full repeal of the ACA’s tax credits and Medicaid expansion, at 334,000. This includes jobs in and outside the health sector.
Will tax cuts balance/mitigate this job loss?
- Tax cuts promised by advocates for repealing the ACA might result in short-term job and economic growth, but by 2021 the pendulum will swing, with job loss and resulting predictable negative effects to the economy.
- With the estimated loss of 924,000 jobs by 2026, GSP (Gross State Products) would shrink by $93 billion.